The most popular OPEC or symbolic production incre

2022-07-26
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OPEC may increase production symbolically, and the decline in international oil prices will add impetus. The organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is scheduled to hold a meeting in the Austrian capital Vienna on June 8. Several key officials of the organization previously disclosed that OPEC is likely to decide to increase crude oil output at this meeting to curb the rise in oil prices as the weather turns cold. However, it is also reported that the decision to increase crude oil output will encounter resistance, and Iran, Venezuela and other parliaments oppose increasing production. Analysts predict that OPEC may make a decision to increase its output quota in the midst of fierce debate, but the increase in output is only equivalent to the difference between the actual output of OPEC member states and the official quota, that is, to formalize the current excess production. However, in view of the frequent signals of the recent global economic slowdown, the prospect of crude oil demand may be disappointing, and the risk premium caused by the unstable situation in the Middle East is also narrowing. Although the above decision can only be regarded as a symbolic increase in production, it will also boost the decline of international oil prices

Gulf oil producing countries including Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates hope to decide to increase production at this meeting because they are worried that the international oil price approaching us $115 per barrel will damage global economic growth and impact energy demand. According to a senior OPEC representative from the Gulf States, the research results released by an economic advisory group within OPEC last Friday (June 3) show that the global oil demand will increase significantly in the second half of 2011. The representative pointed out that OPEC is likely to increase its oil production quota at the meeting, but OPEC officials have not yet decided on the extent of production increase

the Iranian opposition indicates that this week's Vienna meeting will become the most controversial meeting of OPEC for many years. Mohammed Ali khatibi, Iran's representative to OPEC, said on June 6 that it would be difficult to understand if OPEC chose to increase production under the current high inventory level and the recent decline in oil prices. He also said that corresponding actions should be taken according to the actual situation and data, and should not be credulous of market rumors or OPEC forecasts

however, analysts believe that under the pressure of major oil consuming countries, OPEC will finally make a decision to increase production quotas. According to the financial times, the International Energy Agency (IEA) also issued a warning to OPEC member states last month, asking the latter to increase production to ensure global economic recovery. Otherwise, the member states of the agency will release strategic oil reserves (a total of 1.6 billion barrels) for the first time since Hurricane Katrina in 2005. It is reported that the reason why the International Energy Agency urged OPEC to increase oil production is that the total daily output of OPEC in April was 1.3 million barrels less than the level before the civil war in Libya due to the sharp decline in production since the civil war broke out in Libya in February

although it is very likely that OPEC will make a decision to increase production, the Reuters article pointed out that Saudi Arabia and its Gulf allies may not be able to reach a further agreement except to raise the outdated OPEC official production target to make it consistent with the actual supply. An OPEC representative from the Gulf States said that "we should at least eliminate the gap between the actual output and the official quota". On this basis, whether it should comply with the relatively large pull or whether it should further increase production is still under discussion

it is reported that the latest output of OPEC is estimated to be 26.2 million barrels per day, while the current quota standard (determined in December 2008) is 24.84 million barrels per day. 2. Indication accuracy: 1%, with a gap of about 1.4 million barrels. The article of the financial times pointed out that if the meeting decided to increase the range within this level, it would just formalize the current excess production

at the same time, as the market expected that OPEC would increase its production quota at the meeting on June 8, and the situation of economic growth or slowdown caused investors to worry about the decline of crude oil demand, the crude oil futures price on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell below $100 per barrel on June 6. The associated press cited the report of Kaitou macro, a research institution, to point out that although OPEC's decision to increase production is only symbolic to a large extent, the international oil price will also maintain a downward trend in the future, because the weak economic data of the United States and other developed economies have affected investors' expectations of global energy demand, and the risk premium caused by the instability in the Middle East region is also narrowing

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